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Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels

Michael Ye, John Zyren and Joanne Shore

International Advances in Economic Research, 2002, vol. 8, issue 4, 324-333

Abstract: This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigating the impacts of changes on price, should inventories, production, imports, or demand change. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2002

Date: 2002
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DOI: 10.1007/BF02295507

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