Financial variables as leading indicators in Greece

Nikolaos Mylonidis

International Advances in Economic Research, 2003, vol. 9, issue 4, 268-278

Abstract: This paper presents business cycle stylized facts for the Greek economy and extends the relevant Greek literature in the following directions. First, the index of industrial production (IOP) is used to represent real economic activity and business cycle conditions. Second, the behavior of certain financial variables throughout the various phases of the business cycle is analyzed in order to assess their leading indicator properties. Third, possible non-linearities in these variables are investigated and tested for their relation to the business cycle states. The results imply that the most reliable leading indicators are real Treasury bill rates. Volatilities of real short-term interest rates may also contain useful predictive information for IOP volatility. Finally, mean non-linearities seem to be associated with business cycle asymmetries in the mean. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2003

Date: 2003
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DOI: 10.1007/BF02296175

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