The aggregate exports-GDP relation under the prism of infrequent trend breaks and multi-horizon causality
Ioanna Konstantakopoulou ()
Additional contact information
Ioanna Konstantakopoulou: Centre of Planning and Economic Research
International Economics and Economic Policy, 2017, vol. 14, issue 4, 661-689
Abstract This paper re-examines the relationship between exports and economic growth in OECD countries. We apply the multi-horizon causality method developed by Dufour et al. (J Econ 132(2):337–362, 2006) for the first time, taking into account the possibility of infrequent structural trend breaks. Econometric techniques that avoid the circular problem when testing for segmented trends and unit roots have been employed along with a hybrid estimator of break location. The empirical evidence indicates that there is a unidirectional causal relationship from exports to economic growth for Finland, Germany, and the United States in the short run horizon, and directly in the cases of Austria and Ireland. We verify a direct causal relation from economic growth to real exports in France, Luxembourg and Portugal in various continuous horizons. Bidirectional causal relations between exports and economic growth were detected in Greece and Norway.
Keywords: Export-led growth hypothesis; Structural change; Trend break; Unit roots; Multi-horizon causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 F43 O1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-016-0355-1 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:14:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10368-016-0355-1
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/10368/PS2
Access Statistics for this article
International Economics and Economic Policy is currently edited by Paul J.J. Welfens, Holger C. Wolf, Christian Pierdzioch and Christian Richter
More articles in International Economics and Economic Policy from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().