How lockdown causes a missing generation of start-ups and jobs

Shyngys Karimov () and Jozef Konings
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Shyngys Karimov: KU Leuven

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2021, vol. 18, issue 3, No 2, 457-473

Abstract: Abstract This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on aggregate employment in Belgium. To this end, we use microdata of all Belgian firms and apply a machine learning-based approach to simulate the impact of the lockdown on employment growth under various economic scenarios. In doing so, we distinguish between start-ups and incumbent firms with both short and long-term effects. In the short term, we expect to see significant losses of employment coming mainly from mature incumbent firms. In the long term, the missing generation of start-ups formed during the lockdown will have a significant and growing effect of slowing down the employment growth even a decade after the lockdown.

Keywords: Start-ups; Employment dynamics; COVID-19; Machine learning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s10368-021-00513-6

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