Exploring exchange rate sensitivity to crude oil futures: A study of selected global economies

Andrej Privara (), Raheel Gohar (), Haitham M. Alzoubi (), Akash Kalra (), Mohammed Ahmar Uddin () and Bisharat Hussain Chang ()
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Andrej Privara: University of Economics in , Bratislava
Raheel Gohar: Al Yamamah University
Haitham M. Alzoubi: Skyline University College
Akash Kalra: MBA, Brandeis International Business School
Mohammed Ahmar Uddin: Dhofar University
Bisharat Hussain Chang: Sukkur IBA University

International Economics and Economic Policy, 2025, vol. 22, issue 1, No 5, 21 pages

Abstract: Abstract Understanding the complex relationship between crude oil futures and exchange rates is essential due to its profound implications for global economies and for making policy decisions worldwide. Previous studies have employed various methodologies to explore this dynamic, yet gaps in understanding persist. In this study, we address this gap by paying special attention to countries like Iran, Singapore, UAE, Venezuela, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Angola, Algeria, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. For this purpose, we use several methodologies on monthly dataset from January 1998 to February 2024. Our findings reveal that the exchange rates of Singapore and UAE are notably affected by net fluctuations, while results across other countries exhibit inconsistency. Furthermore, our analysis uncovers evidence of time-dependent and bilateral transmission of shocks between the oil and foreign exchange markets. These findings underscore the intricate interaction between crude oil futures and exchange rates, offering premium insights for policymakers and stockholders alike.

Keywords: Dynamic connectedness; Foreign exchange; Oil futures price; Time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10368-024-00630-y

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