The incidence of Cash for Clunkers: Evidence from the 2009 car scrappage scheme in Germany

Ashok Kaul (), Gregor Pfeifer and Stefan Witte ()
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Ashok Kaul: University of Zurich
Stefan Witte: IPE – Institute for Policy Evaluation

International Tax and Public Finance, 2016, vol. 23, issue 6, No 5, 1093-1125

Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the German car scrappage program, focusing on the incidence of the premium. We ask how much of the €2500 ($3500) buyer subsidy is actually captured by the demand side. More precisely, we analyze the program’s impact on different car segments, allowing for heterogeneity in incidence at different points in the vehicle price distribution. Using a unique microtransaction data set, we find that the incidence of the subsidy strongly and significantly varies across price segments. Subsidized buyers of cheap cars paid a little more than comparable buyers who did not receive the subsidy, indicating incidence amounts slightly below 100 %. For more expensive vehicles, subsidized buyers were granted large extra discounts on top of the government premium, translating into incidence amounts considerably greater than 100 %. Taken together, this results in an aggregate incidence amount of up to plus €350 million, suggesting that the positive effect for expensive cars overcompensates the negative effect for small cars.

Keywords: Cash for Clunkers; Scrappage scheme; Incidence; Subsidy; Pricing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D12 H22 L62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10797-016-9396-1

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