The popularity function: a spurious regression? The case of Austria

Reinhard Neck () and Friedrich Schneider ()

International Tax and Public Finance, 2024, vol. 31, issue 1, No 11, 298-329

Abstract: Abstract In this paper we apply the unit root and cointegration methodology as well as other methods of modern econometric time series analysis to estimate popularity functions for the Austrian parties in power since the mid-1970s. We find only very rare evidence for economic variables influencing the popularity of the main political parties in the federal government, thereby challenging previous studies that claimed to have established such influences. When considering the determinants of the popularity of the incumbent party (the sum of the popularities of the parties in government), the unemployment rate turns out to have a negative short-run influence. The robustness of this result is checked by various methods, demonstrating the usefulness of the applied methodology to clarify such issues.

Keywords: Austrian popularity function; Economic influence on popularity; Spurious regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D3 H11 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Working Paper: The Popularity Function: A Spurious Regression? The Case of Austria (2016)
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DOI: 10.1007/s10797-023-09802-z

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