Removing biases in forecasts of fishery status

Christopher Costello (), Olivier Deschenes, Ashley Larsen and Steven Gaines

Journal of Bioeconomics, 2014, vol. 16, issue 2, 213-219

Abstract: A recent highly cited paper from this journal develops a model predicting maximum sustainable yield ( $$MSY$$ MSY ) of a fishery using the historical maximum catch ( $$MaxCatch$$ MaxCatch ). The model is parameterized with a small sample of fisheries from the United States, and is subsequently applied globally to estimate the benefits of fishery recovery. That empirical relationship has been adopted for many subsequent high-profile analyses. Unfortunately, the analysis suffers from two important oversights: (1) because the model is non-linear, it suffers from “retransformation bias” and therefore the results significantly understate $$MSY$$ MSY and (2) the analysis is parameterized from of a very limited data set and so generalizability of the fitted empirical relationship between $$MSY$$ MSY and $$MaxCatch$$ MaxCatch to global fisheries is questionable. Here, we rectify both oversights and provide an updated estimate of the relationship between $$MSY$$ MSY and $$MaxCatch$$ MaxCatch . Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Keywords: Retransformation bias; Fisheries; Maximum sustainable yield; Q22; D57; F01 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1007/s10818-013-9158-4

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