Growth on a finite planet: resources, technology and population in the long run

Pietro Peretto and Simone Valente

Journal of Economic Growth, 2015, vol. 20, issue 3, 305-331

Abstract: We study the interactions between technological change, resource scarcity and population dynamics in a Schumpeterian model with endogenous fertility. We find a steady state in which population is constant and determined by resource scarcity while income grows exponentially. If labor and resources are substitutes in production, income and fertility dynamics are stable and the steady state is the global attractor of the system. If labor and resources are complements, income and fertility dynamics are unstable and drive the economy towards either demographic explosion or collapse. We calibrate the model numerically to match past US data on fertility and land scarcity, obtaining future scenarios for the current century and quantifying the response of fertility and productivity to exogenous shocks. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Keywords: Endogenous innovation; Resource scarcity; Population growth; Fertility choices; E10; L16; O31; O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E10 L16 O31 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (51)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Growth on a Finite Planet: Resources, Technology, and Population in the Long Run (2013)
Working Paper: Growth on a Finite Planet: Resources, Technology and Population in the Long Run (2011)
Working Paper: Growth on a Finite Planet: Resources, Technology and Population in the Long Run (2011)
Working Paper: Growth on a Finite Planet: Resources, Technology and Population in the Long Run (2010)
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DOI: 10.1007/s10887-015-9118-z

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