Is Declining Productivity Inevitable?

Carl-Johan Dalgaard and Claus Kreiner

Journal of Economic Growth, 2001, vol. 6, issue 3, 187-203

Abstract: Fertility has been declining on all continents for the last couple of decades and this development is expected to continue in the future. Prevailing innovation-based growth theories imply, as a consequence of scale effects from the size of population, that such demographic changes will lead to a major slowdown in productivity growth. In this paper we challenge this pessimistic view of the future. By allowing for endogenous human capital in a basic R&D driven growth model we develop a theory of scale-invariant endogenous growth according to which population growth is neither necessary nor conductive for economic growth. Copyright 2001 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Date: 2001
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