Vulnerability to poverty revisited: Flexible modeling and better predictive performance
Maike Hohberg (),
Katja Landau,
Thomas Kneib,
Stephan Klasen and
Walter Zucchini
Additional contact information
Maike Hohberg: University of Goettingen
Katja Landau: University of Goettingen
Thomas Kneib: University of Goettingen
Walter Zucchini: University of Goettingen
The Journal of Economic Inequality, 2018, vol. 16, issue 3, No 6, 439-454
Abstract:
Abstract This paper analyzes several modifications to improve a simple measure of vulnerability as expected poverty. Firstly, in order to model income, we apply distributional regression relating potentially each parameter of the conditional income distribution to the covariates. Secondly, we determine the vulnerability cutoff endogenously instead of defining a household as vulnerable if its probability of being poor in the next period is larger than 0.5. For this purpose, we employ the receiver operating characteristic curve that is able to consider prerequisites according to a particular targeting mechanism. Using long-term panel data from Germany, we build both mean and distributional regression models with the established 0.5 probability cutoff and our vulnerability cutoff. We find that our new cutoff considerably increases predictive performance. Placing the income regression model into the distributional regression framework does not improve predictions further but has the advantage of a coherent model where parameters are estimated simultaneously replacing the original three step estimation approach.
Keywords: Vulnerability to poverty; Distributional regression; Generalized additive model for location; Scale and shape; Receiver operating characteristic curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)
Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10888-017-9374-6 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
Related works:
Journal Article: Vulnerability to poverty revisited: Flexible modeling and better predictive performance (2018) 
Working Paper: Vulnerability to poverty revisited: flexible modeling and better predictive performance (2017) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:jecinq:v:16:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10888-017-9374-6
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... th/journal/10888/PS2
DOI: 10.1007/s10888-017-9374-6
Access Statistics for this article
The Journal of Economic Inequality is currently edited by Stephen Jenkins
More articles in The Journal of Economic Inequality from Springer, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().