On the implications of declining population growth for regional migration

Thomas Christiaans ()
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Thomas Christiaans: FOM University of Applied Sciences, Department of Economics

Journal of Economics, 2017, vol. 122, issue 2, No 4, 155-171

Abstract: Abstract Although many advanced economies nowadays experience decreasing populations, migration in models of economic growth has so far been almost exclusively analyzed for the case of non-negative population growth rates. This paper considers decreasing and possibly negative population growth rates in two two-sector growth models. As long as preferences are homothetic, neither a decrease in population growth rates nor an actual population decline does induce migration in either direction. Introducing quasi-linear preferences implies that a decline in population growth leads to migration from the rural to the industrial region. A complete depopulation of the rural region takes place if the population growth rate falls short of minus the rate of physical capital depreciation. These results reinforce pessimistic expectations about a rural exodus.

Keywords: (Negative) population growth; Migration; Two-sector growth model; Quasi-linear preferences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J61 O41 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:jeczfn:v:122:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00712-017-0556-2

DOI: 10.1007/s00712-017-0556-2

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