A methodology for projecting sparse populations and its application to remote Indigenous communities

Alfred Michael Dockery, Mark Harris, Nicholas Holyoak and Ranjodh B. Singh
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Alfred Michael Dockery: Curtin University
Nicholas Holyoak: Flinders University
Ranjodh B. Singh: Curtin University

Journal of Geographical Systems, 2021, vol. 23, issue 1, No 3, 37-61

Abstract: Abstract A new method is proposed for generating projections for sparse populations by locality, age cohort and gender. An adaptation of the cohort replacement method, the approach uses a Tobit model with varying censoring limits to model population changes by cohort. As an applied example, projections are generated for 2016 Indigenous populations in communities in regional and remote Australia, and then compared to actual 2016 Census population counts. We argue the approach has considerable potential, with the model performing well in out-of-sample projection while offering projections at a much finer-grained level of disaggregation than currently available to planners and policy-makers.

Keywords: Population modelling; Population projections; Cohort replacement; Regional and remote; Indigenous; Australia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10109-020-00329-z

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