Empirical Tests of Real Estate Market Efficiency

Karl L Guntermann and Stefan Norrbin

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1991, vol. 4, issue 3, 297-313

Abstract: Recent empirical research using real estate data has supported the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient markets hypothesis. Previous studies have not included an estimate of expected appreciation into the tests of market efficiency, thus raising a question about the reliability of the results. We first use a market model to test for market efficiency with results similar to those reported by others. We next use a dynamic mulitiple indicator, multiple cause (DYMIMIC) model, which extracts a vector of expected appreciation from the price data, to test market efficiency. This approach produces superior results and a stronger conclusion about the efficiency of housing markets. The results indicate limited adjustment delays which can be explained by the existence of high transactions and search costs. Copyright 1991 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Date: 1991
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