On the Directional Accuracy of United States Housing Starts Forecasts: Evidence from Survey Data

Tim Meyer ()
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Tim Meyer: Helmut Schmidt University

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2019, vol. 58, issue 3, No 5, 457-488

Abstract: Abstract I use data from both the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Livingston Survey to study the directional accuracy of United States housing starts forecasts. Using elements of relative operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, I find that forecasts contain information with respect to subsequent changes in housing starts. Estimates for both surveys are significant at all forecast horizons and robust across time and across forecasters. Implications for the usage of housing starts forecasts from survey data are discussed.

Keywords: Housing starts; Forecasts; Survey data; Directional accuracy; ROC techniques (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1007/s11146-017-9637-9

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