Agree to Disagree: NAV Dispersion in REITs

Mariya Letdin (), Stace Sirmans () and G. Stacy Sirmans ()
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Mariya Letdin: Florida State University
Stace Sirmans: Auburn University
G. Stacy Sirmans: Florida State University

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2025, vol. 71, issue 1, No 2, 10-35

Abstract: Abstract This is the first study to analyze REIT Net Asset Value analyst coverage and dispersion. We find that NAV analyst coverage has a positive relationship with REIT value and a negative relationship with REIT volatility. Subsequently we analyze NAV analyst estimate dispersion and find that it has a positive relationship with REIT leverage and volatility. We break down our sample by property type and find that retail REITs have the greatest NAV coverage and hospitality REITs have the greatest NAV analyst dispersion. Finally, we compare the significance of NAV forecast dispersion to earnings (FFO) forecast dispersion. We find that NAV dispersion has a significant negative relationship with REIT value whereas FFO dispersion is not found to have a significant relationship.

Keywords: Dispersion of analyst forecasts; REIT valuation; REIT investmen (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11146-024-10003-6

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