Coherent Decision Analysis with Inseparable Probabilities and Utilities

Robert F Nau

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1995, vol. 10, issue 1, 91 pages

Abstract: This article explores the extent to which a decisionmaker's probabilities can be measured separately from his/her utilities by observing his/her acceptance of small monetary gambles. Only a partial separation is achieved: the acceptable gambles are partitioned into a set of "belief gambles," which reveals probabilities distorted by marginal utilities for money, and a set of "preference gambles," which reveals utilities reciprocally distorted by marginal utilities for money. However, the information in these gambles still enables us to solve the decisionmaker's problem: his/her utility-maximizing decision is the one that avoids arbitrage (i.e., incoherence or Dutch books). Copyright 1995 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Date: 1995
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