Estimating Probabilities Relevant to Calculating Relative Risk-Corrected Returns of Alternative Portfolios

Paul Samuelson

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1997, vol. 15, issue 3, 200 pages

Abstract: In making all-or-none choices between alternative securities, Samuelson (1997) suggested that investors of different risk-aversion should calculate from past samples of those securities their relevant Harmonic Means, or Geometric means, or other associative means representative of their respective degrees of relative-risk-aversion. Here it is shown how this learning procedure can be improved upon when you have prior knowledge that the securities have log-Normal distributions. Classical estimation theory, concerning consistent, efficient, and sufficient statistics, is shown to have a cash value by means of the calculable measure of (ex ante) "risk-corrected certainty equivalents." Needed qualifications and testings are also presented. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Date: 1997
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