An Analysis of the Distribution of Combinations Chosen by UK National Lottery Players

Jonathan Simon

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1998, vol. 17, issue 3, 243-76

Abstract: This paper is concerned with the behaviour of lottery players when they get to choose their own numbers. Most lotto players do not pick combinations at random, but prefer more idiosyncratic techniques when they fill in the play grid. This is highlighted when the actual distribution of combinations for a single draw in the UK National Lottery is examined. A new model of gambler choice is developed and specified, and the resulting distribution of combinations fitted to the empirical data. Various implications of the model are discussed, such as the expected value of lotto tickets for different types of players. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Date: 1998
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