The sensitivity of subjective probability to time and elicitation method

Graham Loomes () and Judith Mehta ()

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2007, vol. 34, issue 3, 216 pages

Abstract: The paper reports the results of a survey designed to elicit probability judgements for different types of events: ‘pure chance’ events, for which objective probabilities can be calculated; ‘public’ events, about which there may be some discussion in social groups and the media; and ‘personal’ events, such as those relating to crime or accidental injury. Even among respondents deemed to be ‘well-calibrated’ in the domain of pure chance events we find limited sensitivity to the ‘temporal scope’ of public and personal events—this being especially marked for personal events. We discuss possible reasons and some implications for policy-related survey work. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

Keywords: Subjective probability; Elicitation methods; Survey methods; Scope sensitivity; C42; C81; D84 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:34:y:2007:i:3:p:201-216

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DOI: 10.1007/s11166-007-9012-y

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