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When Allais meets Ulysses: Dynamic axioms and the common ratio effect

Antoine Nebout () and Dimitri Dubois ()

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2014, vol. 48, issue 1, 19-49

Abstract: We report experimental findings about subjects’ behavior in dynamic decision problems involving multistage lotteries with different timings of resolution of uncertainty. Our within-subject design allows us to study violations of the independence and dynamic axioms: Dynamic Consistency, Consequentialism and Reduction of Compound Lotteries. We investigate the effects of changes in probability and outcome levels on the pattern of choices observed in the Common Ratio Effect (CRE) and in the Reverse Common Ratio Effect (RCRE) and on their dynamic counterparts. We find that the probability level plays an important role in violations of Reduction of Compound Lottery and Dynamic Consistency and the outcomes levels in violations of Consequentialism. Moreover, more than one quarter of our subjects satisfy the Independence axiom but violate two dynamic axioms. We thus suggest that there is a greater dissociation that might have been expected between preferences captured by dynamic axioms and those observed over single-stage lotteries. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Keywords: Decision theory; Experiment; Independence axiom; Dynamic consistency; Consequentialism; C91; D81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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