EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

The impact of statistical learning on violations of the sure-thing principle

Nicky Nicholls (), Aylit Romm () and Alexander Zimper

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2015, vol. 50, issue 2, 97-115

Abstract: This paper experimentally tests whether violations of Savage’s ( 1954 ) sure-thing principle (STP) decrease through statistical learning. Our subjects repeatedly had to bet on the drawings from an urn with an unknown proportion of differently colored balls. The control group was thereby subjected to learning through mere thought only. In addition, the test group received more and more statistical information over the course of the experiment by observing the color of the ball actually drawn after each bet. We expected that statistical learning would decrease the decision makers’ ambiguity, thereby implying a stronger decrease of STP violations in the test than in the control group. However, our data surprisingly shows that learning by mere thought rather than statistical learning leads to a decrease in STP violations. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Keywords: Learning; Statistical learning; Sure thing principle; Prospect theory; Independence axiom; C91; D81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11166-015-9210-y (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: The impact of statistical learning on violations of the sure-thing principle (2013) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:50:y:2015:i:2:p:97-115

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ry/journal/11166/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s11166-015-9210-y

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty is currently edited by W. Kip Viscusi

More articles in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().

 
Page updated 2021-01-15
Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:50:y:2015:i:2:p:97-115