Economics at your fingertips  

Reporting probabilistic expectations with dynamic uncertainty about possible distributions

Charles Bellemare (), Sabine Kröger () and Kouamé Marius Sossou ()
Additional contact information
Charles Bellemare: Université Laval
Kouamé Marius Sossou: Université Laval

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 2018, vol. 57, issue 2, 153-176

Abstract: Abstract We study how experimental subjects report subjective probability distributions in the presence of ambiguity characterized by uncertainty over a fixed set of possible probability distributions generating future outcomes. Subjects observe draws from the true but unknown probability distribution generating outcomes at the beginning of each period of the experiment and state at selected periods a) the likelihoods that each probability distribution in the set is the true distribution, and b) the likelihoods of future outcomes. We estimate heterogeneity of rules used to update uncertainty about the true distribution and rules used to report distributions of future outcomes. We find that approximately 65% of subjects report distributions by properly weighing the possible distributions using their expressed uncertainty over them, while 22% of subjects report distributions close to the distribution they perceive as most likely. We find significant heterogeneity in how subjects update their expressed uncertainty. On average, subjects tend to overweigh the importance of their prior uncertainty relative to new information, leading to ambiguity that is substantially more persistent than would be predicted using Bayes’ rule. Counterfactual simulations suggest that this persistence will likely hold in settings not covered by our experiment.

Keywords: Measurement of expectations; Belief updating; Preferences under ambiguity; D03; D84; C50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ry/journal/11166/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty is currently edited by W. Kip Viscusi

More articles in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().

Page updated 2019-11-06
Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:57:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11166-018-9291-5