The Pioneer's Curse: Selection Bias and Agricultural Land Degradation

John Quiggin

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1992, vol. 5, issue 3, 46 pages

Abstract: Expansion of agriculture into new regions has often been followed by land degradation. In this article, it is argued that the process of land development involves the selection of pioneer's with optimistic expectations about the robustness and carrying capacity of new land. Hence, there is a systematic bias towards overexploitation and land degradation. The argument is shown to be an extension of the winner's curse analysis in the theory of auctions. Copyright 1992 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Date: 1992
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