Information theoretics-based technoeconomic forecasting: application to telecommunication service industry

Perambur Neelakanta () and Raef Yassin ()

Netnomics, 2012, vol. 13, issue 1, 45-78

Abstract: Addressed in this paper is an information-theoretics inspired econometric approach to evolve a forecast model on the growth profiles of telecommunication services. It includes cohesively, both the profile of user-economics as well as the technological framework of service providers; and the forecasting suite is built on the basis of information-theoretics considerations. It refers to a modified Fisher-Kaysen method that accounts for “free-market” principles and uses entropy (stochastic) details of differential changes in the short-run (state) variables of the growth function. Further, the principle of proportional fairness is appropriately invoked and the heuristics of users’ willingness-to-pay for the network resources allocated to them is presumed. A few simulation examples using real-world data are furnished to validate the forecast algorithm developed. The computed results on forecasting presented depict a “cone-of-forecast” in the ex ante regime of the examples considered. Relevance of this method to modern aspects of managerial approach and market penetration vis-à-vis forecast trends is indicated. Shortcomings of the method are identified. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2012

Keywords: Forecasting; Entropy; Information-theoretics; Regression techniques; Fair-proportioning algorithm (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1007/s11066-012-9071-3

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