Nowcasting unemployment rate and new car sales in south-western Europe with Google Trends

Nuno Barreira (), Pedro Godinho () and Manuel Melo ()

Netnomics, 2013, vol. 14, issue 3, 129-165

Abstract: This work presents a study describing the use of Internet search information to achieve an improved nowcasting ability with simple autoregressive models, using data from four countries and two different application domains with social and economic significance: unemployment rate and car sales. The results we obtained differ by country/language and application area. In the case of unemployment, we find that Google Trends data lead to the improvement of nowcasts in three out of the four considered countries: Portugal, France and Italy. However, there are sometimes important differences in the predictive ability of these data when we consider different out-of-sample periods. For car sales, we find that, in some cases, the volume of search queries helps explaining the variance of the car sales data. However, we find little support for the hypothesis that search query data may improve predictions, and we present several possible reasons for these results. Taking all results into account, we conclude that, when Google Trends variables are significantly different from zero in-sample, they tend to lead to improvements in out-of-sample predictive ability. The results can have implications for nowcasting, by providing some indications regarding the advantage or not of the use of search data to improve simple models and indirectly by highlighting the sensitivity of the approach to the actual country-specific base, nowcasting period and search data. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Keywords: Nowcasting; Google Trends; Unemployment; Car sales (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11066-013-9082-8 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:netnom:v:14:y:2013:i:3:p:129-165

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ry/journal/11066/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s11066-013-9082-8

Access Statistics for this article

Netnomics is currently edited by Stefan Voß

More articles in Netnomics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().