The Impact of Crises on Maritime Traffic: A Case Study of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the War in Ukraine

Krzysztof Węcel, Milena Stróżyna (), Marcin Szmydt and Witold Abramowicz
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Krzysztof Węcel: Poznań University of Economics and Business
Milena Stróżyna: Poznań University of Economics and Business
Marcin Szmydt: Poznań University of Economics and Business
Witold Abramowicz: Poznań University of Economics and Business

Networks and Spatial Economics, 2024, vol. 24, issue 1, No 7, 199-230

Abstract: Abstract Maritime transport plays a key role in the global and local economy, accounting for 80% of global trade by volume. This makes smooth operation of the maritime transport essential. However, the sector faces the constant risk of various crises and their potential consequences that may significantly impact and disrupt the movement of goods on local, regional, and global levels. In recent years, two notable crises, namely the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, have been observed. This paper aims to analyse how international crises, such as armed conflicts and pandemics, influence maritime traffic and assess their impact on both global and local economies. A comparison is drawn between the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and before and during the war in Ukraine to exemplify the effects of crises. The findings are then extrapolated to apply to potential future crises. Vessel movements are studied using data collected from Automatic Identification Systems (AIS). In our quantitative approach, we analyse big data using dedicated tools and visualisation techniques to gain insights into specific phenomena. The paper identifies economically significant regions for maritime traffic and examines the impact of crises on their performance. Its unique value lies in its flow-based analysis of changes in maritime traffic. The main conclusion is that China's importance for worldwide maritime traffic is increasing. This makes the global economy heavily reliant on China to a substantially greater extent than it is, for example, on Russia. Consequently, any crisis in the China region could exert a dramatic impact on the global economy. The paper also discusses observations of changes in maritime traffic following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

Keywords: Maritime traffic; AIS; Spatial dynamics; Crisis management; Pandemic; War; Data quality; Big data; Data science (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 C63 C82 F14 F51 H12 R41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11067-023-09612-0

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