The Vulnerability of the Global Arms Trade: A Network Perspective

Weidong Guo, Debin Du (), Tingzhu Li and Qiang Zhang
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Weidong Guo: East China Normal University
Debin Du: East China Normal University
Tingzhu Li: Yangzhou University
Qiang Zhang: East China Normal University

Networks and Spatial Economics, 2025, vol. 25, issue 3, No 2, 593-612

Abstract: Abstract This study employs a combination of complex network analysis and computer simulation to investigate the vulnerability of global arms trade networks and dependence of arms-importing countries on the major global arms exporters. The results indicate the following: (1) The global arms trade network is robust, with the United States, Russia, and Western Europe nations dominating arms exports and forming three core communities centered around the United States, Russia, and France. (2) The global arms trade network exhibits a hierarchical structure, with the US serving as the unequivocal dominant. Hierarchical networks led by the United States and Russia demonstrate significant structural fragility. Russia’s military allies are more reliant on Russian arms supply compared to the military allies of the United States. (3) The global arms trade network possesses robustness against random attacks but vulnerability to targeted attacks. The stabilizing effect on the network structure is pronounced for the top 6 countries in terms of degree centrality but tends toward collapse after 37.3% of the nodes are attacked.

Keywords: Arms Trade Network; Social Network Analysis; Dominant flow; Simulated Attacks; Sensitivity Interdependence Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11067-025-09665-3

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