Evidence for policy-makers: A matter of timing and certainty?

Wouter Lammers (), Valérie Pattyn (), Sacha Ferrari (), Sylvia Wenmackers () and Steven Van de Walle
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Wouter Lammers: KU Leuven
Valérie Pattyn: Leiden University
Sacha Ferrari: KU Leuven
Sylvia Wenmackers: KU Leuven

Policy Sciences, 2024, vol. 57, issue 1, No 9, 191 pages

Abstract: Abstract This article investigates how certainty and timing of evidence introduction impact the uptake of evidence by policy-makers in collective deliberations. Little is known about how experts or researchers should time the introduction of uncertain evidence for policy-makers. With a computational model based on the Hegselmann–Krause opinion dynamics model, we simulate how policy-makers update their opinions in light of new evidence. We illustrate the use of our model with two examples in which timing and certainty matter for policy-making: intelligence analysts scouting potential terrorist activity and food safety inspections of chicken meat. Our computations indicate that evidence should come early to convince policy-makers, regardless of how certain it is. Even if the evidence is quite certain, it will not convince all policy-makers. Next to its substantive contribution, the article also showcases the methodological innovation that agent-based models can bring for a better understanding of the science–policy nexus. The model can be endlessly adapted to generate hypotheses and simulate interactions that cannot be empirically tested.

Keywords: Timing; Uncertainty; Hegselmann–Krause model; Evidence-informed policy-making; Agent-based model; Opinion dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11077-024-09526-9

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