Gravity Models for Global Migration Flows: A Predictive Evaluation

Juan Caballero Reina, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma (), Katharina Fenz, Jakob Zellmann, Teodor Yankov and Amr Taha
Additional contact information
Juan Caballero Reina: World Data Lab
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma: World Data Lab
Katharina Fenz: World Data Lab
Jakob Zellmann: World Data Lab
Teodor Yankov: World Data Lab
Amr Taha: The International Organization for Migration (IOM)

Population Research and Policy Review, 2024, vol. 43, issue 2, No 20, 17 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study introduces a comprehensive econometric framework based on gravity equations and designed to forecast migrant flows between countries. The model’s theoretical underpinnings are validated through empirical data, and we show that the model has better out-of-sample predictive ability than alternative global models. We explore the quantitative effects of various socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic factors on migration and illustrate its use to obtain scenario-driven projections of bilateral migration, assessing the potential contributions of migration to population and GDP dynamics in Germany and Portugal for the period 2021–2025. Our projection results highlight the critical role of immigration in sustaining population levels and economic growth, particularly in the context of ageing populations and decreasing fertility rates across Europe.

Keywords: Migration; Gravity model; Economic growth; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-024-09867-6 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:43:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09867-6

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... es/journal/11113/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09867-6

Access Statistics for this article

Population Research and Policy Review is currently edited by D.A. Swanson

More articles in Population Research and Policy Review from Springer, Southern Demographic Association (SDA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().