Fertility Decline to Low and Lowest-Low Levels in Latin America

Ignacio Pardo (), Nicolás Sacco, Enrique Acosta and Andrés Castro
Additional contact information
Ignacio Pardo: Universidad de la República
Nicolás Sacco: CONICET
Enrique Acosta: Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Andrés Castro: Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

Population Research and Policy Review, 2025, vol. 44, issue 1, No 9, 10 pages

Abstract: Abstract The literature on fertility trends in Latin America from 2000 to 2010 highlights reductions in higher-order births and the postponement of first births as key drivers of fertility decline. However, the factors sustaining the transition to low and very low fertility levels during 2011–2020 remain underexplored. This paper examines recent fertility trends in Latin America, identifying the main drivers and mechanisms behind the decline and their implications for future fertility patterns. Using period-, age-, and order-specific rates, we assess their contributions to changes in total period fertility rates across six Latin American countries, which together represent nearly three-quarters of the region’s population, and the Latinx populations in the United States. Our analysis reveals that most decline (49–85%) is concentrated among the youngest age groups, suggesting that first-birth postponement is the primary underlying mechanism. We contend that, while a slight fertility recovery may occur in the coming decade, very low or even lowest-low fertility levels are possible to persist.

Keywords: Fertility; Low fertility; Latin America; Fertility decline (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11113-024-09934-y Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:44:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09934-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... es/journal/11113/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09934-y

Access Statistics for this article

Population Research and Policy Review is currently edited by D.A. Swanson

More articles in Population Research and Policy Review from Springer, Southern Demographic Association (SDA)
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().