The Probability of Being Decisive

A J Fischer

Public Choice, 1999, vol. 101, issue 3-4, 267-83

Abstract: The probability of a voter being decisive (P[subscript D]), that is, of one vote affecting the outcome of an election, has generally been incorrectly calculated for the last twenty or more years. The method normally used is due to Banzhaf (1968) and generalised by Beck (1974). It assumes that voters know in advance how many people will vote for each candidate, which is clearly not the case. The correct formulation was given by Good and Mayer in 1975, but was ignored and has subsequently been all but forgotten since then. A simple explanation of these methods is given. Using the incorrect method, errors of magnitude of more than 10[superscript 100] in calculating P[subscript D] correctly can be made. The appropriateness of using a decision-theoretic formulation instead of a game-theoretic one is also discussed. Copyright 1999 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Date: 1999
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

Downloads: (external link)
http://journals.kluweronline.com/issn/0048-5829/contents link to full text (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:101:y:1999:i:3-4:p:267-83

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ce/journal/11127/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

Public Choice is currently edited by WIlliam F. Shughart II

More articles in Public Choice from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().