Partisan Political Business Cycles in the German Labour Market? Empirical Tests in the Light of the Lucas-Critique

Ansgar Belke

Public Choice, 2000, vol. 104, issue 3-4, 225-83

Abstract: This paper focuses on alternative specifications of partisan political business cycles (Partisan Theory, Rational Partisan Theory and hysteresis-augmented RPT). It elaborates on analogies of the natural rate hypothesis underlying all specifications and the cointegration concept. Accordingly, problems of the specification of hypotheses, estimation and inference in a cointegrating framework with political interventions are treated. Super-exogeneity tests are shown to be equivalent to tests of the Lucas-critique and the RPT. Therefore, the concept of super-exogeneity is transferred to empirical tests of partisan cycles. By this, a new testing framework of partisan cycles is developed and applied to German labour market data. Copyright 2000 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Date: 2000
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