Inequality, transaction costs and voter turnout: evidence from Canadian provinces and Indian states

Bharatee Dash, J. Stephen Ferris and Marcel Voia

Public Choice, 2023, vol. 194, issue 3, No 6, 325-346

Abstract: Abstract This article tests for the presence of a regularity in the relationship between income inequality and voter turnout in two countries with common Westminster parliamentary systems. We begin by using data from a panel of Canadian provinces to assess two contrasting monotonic hypotheses: conflict theory that predicts a positive monotonic relationship (inequality promoting conflict and greater electoral participation) against relative power theory that predicts a negative monotonic relationship (inequality leading to political alienation and electoral disengagement). Nesting these hypotheses within a rational choice model of voter turnout, we find that neither hypothesis explains the data convincingly while a search across fractional polynomials finds that the relationship is better described as non-monotonic with an inverted U shape. The generality of this finding is assessed by rerunning the analysis on a panel of 14 Indian states. The commonality of results across countries with similar political structures but widely different demographics and stages of development is striking and consistent with the hypothesis that conflict theory operates at low levels of income inequality before growing inequality leads to voter alienation and lower voter turnout. In the Canadian case the tipping point arises at an income Gini of 0.32 while the Indian case peaks at consumption Gini of 0.34.

Keywords: Voter turnout; Income inequality; Subnational panel data analysis; Non-monotonic relationships; Canadian provincial and Indian state panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D78 H62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Working Paper: Inequality, transaction costs and voter turnout: evidence from Canadian provinces and Indian states (2023)
Working Paper: Inequality, Transaction Costs and Voter Turnout: evidence from Canadian Provinces and Indian States (2022)
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DOI: 10.1007/s11127-022-01035-8

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