Exogenous shocks and electoral outcomes

Kaustav Das (), Atisha Ghosh () and Pushkar Maitra ()
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Kaustav Das: University of Leicester
Atisha Ghosh: University of Warwick
Pushkar Maitra: Monash University

Public Choice, 2024, vol. 201, issue 1, No 9, 145-179

Abstract: Abstract Do voters react to shocks that are beyond the control of politicians? We consider the case of the assassination of a senior politician in India, in the middle of an election. We find that Congress(I), the party of the assassinated leader, gained significantly from this event through increased vote shares and improved likelihood of victory. Sympathy towards Congress(I) and changed perceptions about governing abilities of the contesting parties in the post-assassination environment played crucial roles in determining the final outcomes of the election. Our results imply that even in environments where voters are expected to make their decisions based on prior performance of parties, an unanticipated, random, exogenous event can affect voting behaviour.

Keywords: Exogeneous shocks; Assassination; Election outcomes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 H12 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11127-024-01162-4

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