EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Optimizing group judgmental accuracy in the presence of interdependencies

Lloyd Shapley and Bernard Grofman

Public Choice, 1984, vol. 43, issue 3, 329-343

Abstract: Consider a group of people confronted with a dichotomous choice (for example, a yes or no decision). Assume that we can characterize each person by a probability, p i , of making the ‘better’ of the two choices open to the group, such that we define ‘better’ in terms of some linear ordering of the alternatives. If individual choices are independent, and if the a priori likelihood that either of the two choices is correct is one half, we show that the group decision procedure that maximizes the likelihood that the group will make the better of the two choices open to it is a weighted voting rule that assigns weights, w i , such that % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr% 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq-Jc9% vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0-yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr-x% fr-xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4DamaaBa% aaleaacaWGPbaabeaaiiaakiab-1Hi1kaabYgacaqGVbGaae4zamaa% laaabaGaamiCamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbaabeaaaOqaaiaaigdacqGHsi% slcaWGWbWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgaaeqaaaaaaaa!423B!\[w_i \propto {\text{log}}\frac{{p_i }}{{1 - p_i }}\] We then examine the implications for optimal group choice of interdependencies among individual choices. Copyright Martinus Nijhoff Publishers 1984

Date: 1984
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (31) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF00118940 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:43:y:1984:i:3:p:329-343

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ce/journal/11127/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

Public Choice is currently edited by WIlliam F. Shughart II

More articles in Public Choice from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().

 
Page updated 2019-04-15
Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:43:y:1984:i:3:p:329-343