Estimating the Likelihood of an Unpopular Verdict in the Electoral College

William J Ball and David A Leuthold

Public Choice, 1991, vol. 70, issue 2, 215-24

Abstract: We use historical data to estimate the probability that a presidential candidate could win the popular vote and subsequently lose in the electoral collecge (a divided verdict). We replicate the model constructed by Merrill (1978b), and improve its robustness by replacing the normal distribution with the beta distribution, and by extending the historical time period to 1880-1984. The changes indicate greater inefficiency for the Democratic party, which was more likely to have unnecessarily large majorities in particular (Southern) states. We revise the model further to include the changes over time in electoral size and in voting patterns among the states. This dynamic model indicates that recent party realignments have decreased the probability of dividend verdicts in moderately close elections. Copyright 1991 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Date: 1991
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:70:y:1991:i:2:p:215-24

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