Intervention Analysis of Electoral Tax Cycle: The Case of Japan

Keum-Rok Yoo

Public Choice, 1998, vol. 96, issue 3-4, 58 pages

Abstract: This paper analyzed the impact of elections on tax policy in Japan using an ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average)-intervention analysis from 1953 through 1992. The author used discretionary tax revenues, which means the changes in tax receipts attributable to changes in the tax code, rather than automatic tax revenues due to business cycles in the economy. The result of this study shows that there is a political tax cycle in Japan. That is, discretionary tax revenues decrease with a statistically significant amount in a year immediately before elections for the House of Representatives. This may be due to the fact that election timings in Japan with a parliamentary system become endogenous. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Date: 1998
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