Spillovers to small business credit risk

Dennis Bams (), Magdalena Pisa and Christian Wolff
Additional contact information
Dennis Bams: Maastricht University

Small Business Economics, 2021, vol. 57, issue 1, No 14, 323-352

Abstract: Abstract Do large credit risk shocks spill over to small businesses and affect their real economic activity? Using information on small business credit risk, we find that small businesses show increased default and bankruptcy rates following a shock to a customer industry. On an industry level, the shock to a customer industry is followed by a decrease in industry markups, disproportionate closure of firms, and cutbacks in inventories. Our analysis quantifies the elevated credit risk among small businesses and suggests a non-negligible 0.83% increase in expected losses on a diversified loan portfolio following a credit risk shock. This study provides banks and supervisors with greater clarity on timing and on the extent of elevated small business credit risk. It also allows them to assess the exposure of a bank portfolio to fluctuations in small business default rate. Such improved default prediction reduces credit rationing to the small business economy.

Keywords: Spillover effects; Supply chain; Small businesses; Credit risk; L14; L25; G17; L26 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11187-019-00308-9 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:sbusec:v:57:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11187-019-00308-9

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... 29/journal/11187/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s11187-019-00308-9

Access Statistics for this article

Small Business Economics is currently edited by Zoltan J. Acs and David B. Audretsch

More articles in Small Business Economics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().