EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians

Louis Lévy-Garboua (), Muniza Askari () and Marco Gazel ()
Additional contact information
Muniza Askari: Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne
Marco Gazel: Université Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, and Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne, 106-112 Bd de l’Hôpital

Theory and Decision, 2018, vol. 84, issue 3, 453-482

Abstract: Abstract We design a double-or-quits game to compare the speed of learning one’s specific ability with the speed of rising confidence as the task gets increasingly difficult. We find that people on average learn to be overconfident faster than they learn their true ability and we present an intuitive-Bayesian model of confidence which integrates confidence biases and learning. Uncertainty about one’s true ability to perform a task in isolation can be responsible for large and stable confidence biases, namely limited discrimination, the hard–easy effect, the Dunning–Kruger effect, conservative learning from experience and the overprecision phenomenon (without underprecision) if subjects act as Bayesian learners who rely only on sequentially perceived performance cues and contrarian illusory signals induced by doubt. Moreover, these biases are likely to persist since the Bayesian aggregation of past information consolidates the accumulation of errors and the perception of contrarian illusory signals generates conservatism and under-reaction to events. Taken together, these two features may explain why intuitive Bayesians make systematically wrong predictions of their own performance.

Keywords: Confidence biases; Intuitive-Bayesian; Learning; Double or quits experimental game; Doubt; Contrarian illusory signals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11238-017-9612-1 Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Confidence Biases and Learning among Intuitive Bayesians (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Confidence Biases and Learning among Intuitive Bayesians (2015) Downloads
Working Paper: Confidence Biases and Learning among Intuitive Bayesians (2015) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:theord:v:84:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11238-017-9612-1

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ry/journal/11238/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

Theory and Decision is currently edited by Mohammed Abdellaoui

More articles in Theory and Decision from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().

 
Page updated 2019-10-21
Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:84:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11238-017-9612-1