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Learning from others: conditioning versus averaging

Richard Bradley ()
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Richard Bradley: London School of Economics

Theory and Decision, 2018, vol. 85, issue 1, 5-20

Abstract: Abstract How should we revise our beliefs in response to the expressed probabilistic opinions of experts on some proposition when these experts are in disagreement? In this paper I examine the suggestion that in such circumstances we should adopt a linear average of the experts’ opinions and consider whether such a belief revision policy is compatible with Bayesian conditionalisation. By looking at situations in which full or partial deference to the expressed opinions of others is required by Bayesianism I show that only in trivial circumstances are the requirements imposed by linear averaging compatible with it.

Keywords: Linear averaging; Bayesian conditionalisation; Expert testimony; Deference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Handle: RePEc:kap:theord:v:85:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11238-017-9615-y