All agreed: Aumann meets DeGroot

Jan-Willem Romeijn () and Olivier Roy ()
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Jan-Willem Romeijn: University of Groningen
Olivier Roy: Uni Bayreuth

Theory and Decision, 2018, vol. 85, issue 1, No 4, 60 pages

Abstract: Abstract We represent consensus formation processes based on iterated opinion pooling (DeGroot in J Am Stat Assoc 69:118–121, 1974; Lehrer and Wagner in Rational consensus in science and society: a philosophical and mathematical study. Springer, Berlin, 1981) as a dynamic approach to common knowledge of posteriors (Aumann in Ann Stat 4(6):1236–1239, 1976; Geanakoplos and Polemarchakis in J Econ Theory 28:192–200, 1982). We thus provide a concrete and plausible Bayesian rationalization of consensus through iterated pooling. The link clarifies the conditions under which iterated pooling can be rationalized from a Bayesian perspective, and offers an understanding of iterated pooling in terms of higher-order beliefs.

Keywords: Iterated pooling; Dynamic agreement theorem; Social epistemology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11238-017-9633-9

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