Long-term trends in domestic US passenger travel: the past 110 years and the next 90

Andreas W. Schäfer ()
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Andreas W. Schäfer: Stanford University

Transportation, 2017, vol. 44, issue 2, No 3, 293-310

Abstract: Abstract Based upon a long-term historical data set of US passenger travel, a model is estimated to project aggregate transportation trends through 2100. One of the two model components projects total mobility (passenger-km traveled) per capita based on per person GDP and the expected utility of travel mode choices (logsum). The second model component has the functional form of a logit model, which assigns the projected travel demand to competing transportation modes. An iterative procedure ensures the average amount of travel time per person to remain at a pre-specified level through modifying the estimated value of time. The outputs from this model can be used as a first-order estimate of a future benchmark against which the effectiveness of various transportation policy measures or the impact of autonomous behavioral change can be assessed.

Keywords: Passenger travel; Time series model; Mode choice; Travel time budget; Peak car; Scenario (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6

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