Is accessibility relevant in trip generation? Modelling the interaction between trip generation and accessibility taking into account spatial effects

Ruben Cordera (), Pierluigi Coppola, Luigi dell’Olio and Ángel Ibeas
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Ruben Cordera: University of Cantabria
Pierluigi Coppola: “Tor Vergata” University of Rome
Luigi dell’Olio: University of Cantabria
Ángel Ibeas: University of Cantabria

Transportation, 2017, vol. 44, issue 6, No 18, 1577-1603

Abstract: Abstract The influence of accessibility to opportunities in trip generation continues to be debated in the specialised literature given its relevance to simulate phenomena such as induced demand. This article estimates multiple linear regression models (MLR), spatial autoregressive models (SAR), spatial autoregressive models in the error term (SEM) and spatially filtered Poisson regression models (SPO) to discover whether or not accessibility is a significant factor in trip generation using data from the urban area of Santander (Spain). The results obtained provide evidence which shows that, on an intraurban scale, more accessibility to opportunities decreases trip production in private vehicle for work purpose, whereas it increases trip production in other transport modes for non—mandatory purposes. For the correct interpretation of the estimated parameters it was important to consider the direct and indirect effects of the independent variables in the SAR production models. Finally, the validation of the models showed that the SAR and SEM models had a mean squared error slightly lower than the MLR models in predicting overall trip production. This was because the spatial models reduced the correlation of the residuals present in the MLR models. Furthermore, the SPO models performed better in validation mode than all the continuous models.

Keywords: Accessibility; Trip generation; Induced demand; Spatial—econometric models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11116-016-9715-5

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