Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: a literature review of roads and railways projects

Carlos Oliveira Cruz () and Joaquim Miranda Sarmento ()
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Carlos Oliveira Cruz: Universidade de Lisboa
Joaquim Miranda Sarmento: Universidade de Lisboa

Transportation, 2020, vol. 47, issue 4, No 1, 1606 pages

Abstract: Abstract The inaccuracy of traffic forecasts has long stood as a central research theme in the field of infrastructure and transportation studies. The literature presents several motives for this phenomenon, ranging from a political bias, insufficient technical preparation, changing urban patterns, and economic dynamics. Uncertainty due to the inaccuracy of forecasts can have a profound impact on the infrastructure development process, right through from the preliminary studies up until the operation and re-negotiation of contracts (in cases when projects are developed using a concessions model). This paper provides an extensive systematic review of forecast inaccuracy in roads and railways projects (analyzing trends, causes, and results). The research found that: (1) forecasts in rail projects are generally more optimistic than in road projects; (2) over the last couple of decades the accuracy of forecasts has not improved significantly, and; (3) there has been a generalized ramp-up effect in forecasts.

Keywords: Traffic forecast; Forecast inaccuracy; Optimism bias; Systematic review; Strategic behaviour; Roads; Railways (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H54 J68 R41 R42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11116-019-09972-y

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