A forward Markov model for predicting bicycle speed

Petter Arnesen (), Olav Kåre Malmin and Erlend Dahl
Additional contact information
Petter Arnesen: SINTEF
Olav Kåre Malmin: SINTEF
Erlend Dahl: SINTEF

Transportation, 2020, vol. 47, issue 5, No 15, 2415-2437

Abstract: Abstract Speed prediction of different transport modes is important in applications such as route planning, transport modelling and energy calculations. In this paper we model bicycle speed as a function of slope and horizontal curvature. We developed two models, one with dependence between subsequent observations (a forward Markov model) and one without such a dependence (a generalised linear model). We show through prediction on out-of-sample data that the model including dependence between observations outperforms the model without. To estimate and evaluate our models we use a data set collected using a smart phone application. The data collected includes different sources of error, and therefore we introduce various filtering methods to make the data more appropriate for statistical analysis and model estimation.

Keywords: Bicycle speed modelling; GLM; GPS data; Markov model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11116-019-10021-x Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:transp:v:47:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1007_s11116-019-10021-x

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ce/journal/11116/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s11116-019-10021-x

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation is currently edited by Kay W. Axhausen

More articles in Transportation from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().