Validation of a multi-modal transit route choice model using smartcard data

Malvika Dixit (), Oded Cats, Niels van Oort, Ties Brands and Serge Hoogendoorn
Additional contact information
Malvika Dixit: Delft University of Technology
Oded Cats: Delft University of Technology
Niels van Oort: Delft University of Technology
Ties Brands: Delft University of Technology
Serge Hoogendoorn: Delft University of Technology

Transportation, 2024, vol. 51, issue 5, No 10, 1809-1829

Abstract: Abstract Validation of travel demand models, although recognised as important, is seldom undertaken. This study adds to the scarce literature in this field by undertaking an external validation of a multi-modal transit route choice model. The model was estimated using smart card data for the urban transit network of Amsterdam before the introduction of a new metro line and is used to predict changes in travel behaviour after the network change. To validate, the model was checked for changes in estimated parameters between the two time periods, and predictive ability was evaluated at different aggregation levels. Although most model parameters were found to be unstable between the two contexts, the predictive performance at all levels was similar to the locally estimated model. Moreover, individual choices and transit mode-share predictions were found to be close to the observed ones. The errors were relatively larger for the link and route-level predictions, some of which could be attributed to the assumptions made regarding consideration choice set given as input to the model. On comparing alternative model specifications, using generic instead of mode-specific travel attributes lead to a strong degradation in predictive performance. Conversely, a model incorporating overlap between routes, with a better model fit in the base period, did not offer a clear improvement in prediction performance. The study highlights the need to validate transit route choice models before using them for deriving policy recommendations, especially in this data-rich age in which it can often be undertaken at a relatively low additional cost.

Keywords: Route choice; Automated data; Public transport; Model transferability; Ex-post model evaluation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11116-023-10387-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:transp:v:51:y:2024:i:5:d:10.1007_s11116-023-10387-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ce/journal/11116/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s11116-023-10387-z

Access Statistics for this article

Transportation is currently edited by Kay W. Axhausen

More articles in Transportation from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().