Modeling Government Popularity: More Evidence for the United Kingdom

Dong-Ho Lee
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Dong-Ho Lee: Chung-Ang University

Korean Economic Review, 1999, vol. 15, 381-397

Abstract: Theory suggests that there are systematic relations between government popularity, as measured by the Gallup Poll series on voting intentions, and key economic variables. Unlike previous literatures in modelling government popularity, we model voter's reactions in the spirit of 'satisficing' theory. A 'satisficing' response pattern can be incorporated into the existing model by assuming that voters' reactions are only triggered off by economic variables which exceed a certain 'threshold' level. In this paper, we explore the implications of this model in a empirical context, using data for the UK 1956q2-1994q3. The results suggest that falls in government popularity are only associated with inflation and changes in unemployment which exceed the threshold level.

Keywords: Government Popularity; Inflation; Unemployment; Threshold Effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 D72 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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