Predicting the Medal Wins at the 2006 Winter Olympics: an Econometrics Approach

Wade D. Pfau
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Wade D. Pfau: Ewha Womans University

Korean Economic Review, 2006, vol. 22, 233-247

Abstract: Demographic and economic characteristics have been shown to provide important predictive power for determining a country��s success in the Olympic Games. This paper extends such research, providing a set of predictions for the gold medals and total medals each country will win at the 2006 Winter Olympics. We expected Germany to win the most medals, followed by the United States, Norway, Italy, Austria, and Canada. For total medals, the overall correlation between the predictions and the actual results was 0.934. While Germany and the United States did finish in the top two places, there were some surprises as Canada, Austria, and Russia performed better than expected, while Norway and Italy did not live up to expectations.

Keywords: Olympics; Econometrics; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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