Uncertainty Surrounding The U.S. NAIRU Estimates Of Estrella And Mishkin(1999)

Charles Harvie and Hyeon-seung Huh
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Charles Harvie: University of Wollongong

Korean Economic Review, 2007, vol. 23, 49-63

Abstract: Estrella and Mishkin(1999) propose a promising method to estimate the NAIRU for the U.S. However, their uncertainty measure of the NAIRU estimates is problematic, as the underlying assumption of normality is violated. We apply the block bootstrap techniques to offer a better measure of precision. One implication is that their method underestimates the true uncertainty surrounding the NAIRU estimates.

Keywords: NAIRU; Uncertainty; Fat tails; Block bootstrap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C51 E24 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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